Return on Luck (ROL)
do you capitalize on luck or you just wish…?
“It’s Unlucky to Be Superstitious”
old gambler saying…
Welcome to Students of Leadership, today a (another) tribute to Jim Collins, famous author of Good to Great, Great By Choice, How the Mighty Fall, among other books.
Return on Luck (RoL) is a concept developed in the book Great by Choice. It shows that great companies were not generally luckier than the comparisons used in the research (no more, less or better timing of luck). Instead, what they had was a higher return on luck, meaning they made more of their luck. Therefore, the critical question is not, Will you get luck? but What will you do with the luck that you get?
It is not about having better luck, but how effectively you respond to events that occur. Successful teams use their preparation, discipline, and foresight to turn lucky breaks into opportunities and to mitigate the damage from bad luck, turning it into a strength. This is the secrete behind ROL. Sounds simple, obvious, trite… but go and do it consistently and then tell me if you are ready for it or you are caught off guard more often than not.
I invite you to watch this few minutes video by the author
Leadership is part philosophy, part strategy, a lot of reps, solid communication…and a healthy dose of pure, raw luck.
Rethinking Luck
From Cosmic Roulette to Leadership Asset
Philosophers have wrestled with randomness, but modern leadership researcher and author Michael Collins reframed it: luck happens, we get breaks and setbacks beyond our control, but what defines a leader isn’t blind faith in fate, but how they convert luck into results. This is the “return on luck” (RoL): the value you extract from each stroke of fortune.
The Four Faces of Luck
Collins’s research shares that luck comes in four flavors:
• Good breaks (a promotion, a rising market)
• Bad breaks (budget cuts, organizational shake-ups)
• Managed risks (big bets, bold hires, news strategies)
• Avoided pitfalls (dodging bad investments, letting go toxic talent)
Your RoL isn’t just the sum of good breaks minus bad ones, it’s how you prepare for, react to, and harvest opportunity from every event, positive or negative. Luck is not good luck, it’s the luck you are dealt with.
Philosophy Meets Pragmatism - Three Steps
Primed Mindset:
– Stoic Readiness: Channel Marcus Aurelius. Anticipate volatility. Train your mind to ask not “Why me?” but “What now?”
– Growth Mindset: Cultivate intellectual curiosity. Read, network. When luck knocks, you’ll recognize the door.
Tactical Habits:
– Portfolio of Experiments: Test small bets—side projects, stretch assignments. Each experiment is a mini “luck magnet.”
– Rapid Feedback Loops: Measure progress frequently. Celebrate micro-wins. Learn fast when you miss.
– Look for Adventure: Reserve time for the casual. If you’re overbooked, you’ll miss that unexpected hallway conversation.
Resilient Resolve:
– Reframing Failure: A bad presentation should be data, not doom. Ask, “What’s the nugget here?”
– Creative Pivoting: When setbacks sting, repurpose assets and adapt the game plan.
Leadership Luck is and Investment, Not a Lottery Ticket
Lottery-style thinking looks like this… “If only I were the CEO” and this is wasteful. Instead, treat luck like any capital: you invest effort, diligence and strategic risk-taking. You reinvest returns (new skills, stronger networks) to compound your advantage. Over time, the odds will almost invariably bend in your favor. Not because the universe is “on your side,” but because you trained yourself to capture value whenever fortune stirs.
Closing Call
Prepare ruthlessly, experiment boldly and pivot creatively.
When circumstance throws you a curveball, or a golden opportunity, you’ll be the one cashing in. After all, the only superstition you need is the belief that your next big break belongs to the most ready mind in the room: yours.
Don’t fetishize four-leaf clovers, engineer your own Return on Luck.
P.S. Before I go, here you have “The Treat,” where I share the music that kept me company while writing … Enjoy as you bid farewell to this post.
“Lead yourself, Learn to live. Lead others, Learn to Build.”
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